Market research organizations predict that the real estate market will face many difficulties in 2021 and will likely recover in 2022.
A recent report of JLL Vietnam noted that the market in Hanoi and neighboring provinces recorded 625 sold out units in the third quarter of 2021, a slight decrease of 10% quarter-on-quarter. In Hanoi, the absorption rate reached 70% with 420 units sold out. Transactions mainly take place at new sources of supply in localities less affected by the Covid-19 epidemic. Meanwhile, four neighboring provinces recorded 205 units sold, mainly in Bac Ninh. Notably, the market sentiment is developing well in Bac Ninh with 172 units sold, thanks to good FDI attraction and the upgrading of Tu Son town to a city.
JLL Vietnam believes that the real estate market will recover in 2022. Explaining this statement, JLL Vietnam believes that due to the complicated situation of the Covid-19 epidemic in Hanoi, along with the Measures to control travel between provinces, new supply in Q4/2021 was revised down from the previous quarter forecast, at 1,000 -1,500 units in Hanoi, and about 1,000 units in neighboring provinces. Supply will improve in 2022 when Hanoi is expected to receive about 3,500-4,000 new units for sale, while the estimated number in neighboring provinces is more than 4,500 units.
In addition to a good market sentiment, the market of single-family homes in Hanoi and neighboring provinces will have many other catalysts in the coming period, such as key infrastructure projects such as the Ring Road. 4, Metro lines No. 2A and No. 3, and the Red River urban subdivision planning. Therefore, the primary price of townhouses is expected to continue to increase.
Meanwhile, Batdongsan.com.vn, said that, with different localities, the recovery speed of the housing market will also be different. Accordingly, if under the conditions of successful disease control, the number of F0 cases does not increase, the coverage of two vaccines reaches 90%, and the economy reopens as well as recovers production smoothly in the fourth quarter of this year. 2021, Hanoi will be the locality with the fastest and earliest recovery of transactions and real estate supply in the country. It is expected that by the end of October, the level of interest in housing search in Hanoi will reach 100% compared to the time before the epidemic.
Similarly, when the above conditions are met, the central real estate market, in particular, Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang can achieve a 100% recovery of transaction demand by the end of 2021, more details will be in December.
With the Ho Chi Minh City market, despite the sharp decline in real estate transactions in the third quarter, Ho Chi Minh City is still the market that recorded the highest level of interest in real estate search in the country. In the current context, Ho Chi Minh City has basically not been able to control the epidemic and is partly aiming to cover 99% of the entire population with vaccines. If the city’s anti-epidemic achievements are maintained, the reopening of the economy is favorable, it is forecast that Ho Chi Minh City can fully recover the demand for housing transactions in the coming November 2021.
In the last 3 months of the year, the market has not fully recovered. The supply in the market has not improved much, projects that are completing investment preparation procedures (the number is very large) will certainly still face many difficulties and cannot enter the market right at the end of the year. The supply volume in the whole market has reached the lowest level in the past 5 years and will hardly increase sharply in the next 3 months. The scarcity of supply combined with land tax, the price of raw materials, equipment, and labor costs may cause housing prices to continue to increase in the near future.
Regarding the absorption capacity of the market, although the transaction will change, in the last 3 months of the year, real estate developers and contractors have been heavily affected by the Covid-19 epidemic. Many real estate brokerage and service businesses are really weakening, unable to resume operations right in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the number of businesses that can recover is estimated at about 30%.