In a recent interview, CBRE Vietnam said that it is certainly that the number of apartments initially forecasted to be sold on 2021 was not accurate. The time when it was forecasted the consumption figure of 13,000-15,000, even 17,000 apartments for 2021 in Ho Chi Minh City is the time when the epidemic has not broken out as violently as this time. At that time, nobody expected the epidemic to last until the end of September, even through October.
The change of forecast depends a lot on the opening scenario of HCMC. Here CBRE offers two scenarios.
Scenario 1: If we gradually reopen in September and go back to work in October and activities reopen gradually, CBRE forecasts the total number of apartments to be available for sale in HCMC in 2021 will be about 13,000 units and in Hanoi it will be about 17,000 units. Corresponding to the number of apartments for sale, the consumption is also at about 12,000 units for Ho Chi Minh City and 17,000 units for Hanoi. Of course, these numbers are much lower than CBRE’s previous forecast and much lower than previous years, including 2020. During peak times, there are years when we have up to 35,000 units.
Scenario 2 : We have not opened up gradually in October, but have to wait until the end of 2021, then the number of apartments on the market in Ho Chi Minh City will be even lower.
On this scenario, the number of apartments offered for sale in Ho Chi Minh City in 2021 would be only 8,000 units and 14,000 units in Hanoi. These numbers are only ¼-1/5 compared to previous peak times.
According to this expert, the prolonged social distancing measures will greatly affect the sales organization. Vietnamese & Foreign customers always want to directly attend sales events, visit model apartments and talk to investors face-to-face related to sales. Of course, prolonging the social distancing like the current one will make the sale and purchase slow down.
Of the two scenarios, CBRE is more inclined towards the second scenario. Because even if it is gradually opened in October 2021, mass gatherings are still not allowed. It is possible that outdoor events or allowed gatherings should not exceed 30 people. With such a small concentration of people, investors with large-scale projects that want to sell must sell in phases with small and medium quantities. Although quite optimistic about people’s demand, about the absorption rate of some individual projects, buyers themselves must be very cautious.
If we look at 3 months ago, we see that they can still be very optimistic and still have a lot of demand. But in the past 3 months, a lot of people have to work from home, not even continuing to work as before. They will have to think very carefully, whether buying to live or buy to invest. Investors themselves, when offering for sale, must also carefully probe the demand in the market and gradually introduce products on a larger scale. With that, CBRE is inclined to the second scenario, which means that the market in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will have a huge decrease in the number of apartments for sale and the number of apartments sold for the remaining of 2021.
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